The SPAN® risk array represents how a specific derivative contract (e.g. a future or option on a future, or an option on a stock) will react (gain or lose value), from the current point in time to a specific point in time in the future (usually the following day), to a specific set of market conditions over this time duration. The time duration is typically one trading day as SPAN® is primarily concerned with assessing the worst probable loss which may occur from one trading day to another.
The market conditions that are evaluated are called "risk scenarios". There are sixteen risk scenarios and these are defined in terms of:
- how much the price of the underlying is expected to change over the time duration
- how much the volatility of the underlying will change over the time duration.
The results of this calculation for each risk scenario - the amount by which the derivative contract will gain or lose value over the time duration - is called the risk array value. The set of risk array values for the specific contract under the full set of risk scenarios constitutes the risk array. The scanning range, that is the range at which SPAN® scans up and down from the current underlying market price, is set and reviewed by LCH.Clearnet.
SPAN® uses the risk arrays to scan underlying market price changes and volatility changes for all contracts in a portfolio in order to determine value gains and losses at the portfolio level. The largest loss recorded from this process is used as the "scanning loss" for the portfolio.
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